Lula won Brazil’s runoff on Sunday, Oct 25, with 51.8% of the vote to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%. You could say the forest breathed, or respired, a sigh of relief along with the voters.

Under Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, Amazon deforestation took a sharp turn upward. It topped 10,000 km² every year from 2019 to 2022, a level not seen since 2008, undoing much of the progress made after 2004.

INPE PRODES, Legal Amazon, 2001–2026 · 2026 is a preliminary estimate

Since 2023 the decline has been even sharper: down four years running, to 71% below 2022. Note that the 2026 figure is INPE’s preliminary estimate, not the final number.

In contrast, Brazil’s financial markets fell hard on Monday. The Ibovespa dropped 10% at the open, triggering the first trading halt since March 2020.

The split screen

This split screen shows why our work is so hard. A majority of voters, and seemingly the forest, chose Lula. The financial machine not so much.